Does Iran And Iraq Get Along? A Deep Dive Into Their Complex Ties
In the complex landscape of Middle Eastern geopolitics, the relationship between Iran and Iraq presents a compelling study of shifts and turns. Historically, the two nations have transitioned from an intense rivalry to a surprising collaboration. The harrowing experiences of the 1980s war are etched deeply in their collective memory, yet the dawn of the new millennium unveiled a significantly altered dynamic, prompting many to ask: does Iran and Iraq get along today?
This article delves into the intricate layers of their bilateral relationship, exploring its historical roots, the profound impact of recent geopolitical shifts, and the economic and security dimensions that define their current interactions. We will examine how a past defined by devastating conflict has evolved into a present characterized by a complex, often unequal, interdependence, shaping the very fabric of regional stability.
Table of Contents
- A History Forged in Conflict: The Iran-Iraq War
- The Dawn of a New Millennium: Shifting Sands
- Iran's Ascendant Influence in Post-Saddam Iraq
- Economic Interdependence: A Double-Edged Sword
- Border Dynamics and Security Challenges
- Regional Rivalries and External Pressures
- The Future of Iran-Iraq Relations: A Delicate Balance
A History Forged in Conflict: The Iran-Iraq War
To understand whether Iran and Iraq get along today, one must first confront the specter of their devastating eight-year war (1980-1988). This conflict, one of the longest and bloodiest conventional wars of the 20th century, left an indelible mark on both nations. The harrowing experiences of the 1980s war are etched deeply in their collective memory, shaping national identities and political narratives for generations. The war's origins were multifaceted, rooted in historical border disputes, ideological clashes, and Saddam Hussein's ambition for regional dominance.
Successive military coups in Iraq led to the takeover by the Ba’ath Party in 1968 and Hussein’s gradual ascent to power through the ranks. His regime, driven by a blend of Arab nationalism and secular Ba'athist ideology, viewed the newly established Islamic Republic of Iran, with its revolutionary zeal and Shi'ite clerical rule, as an existential threat. A key point of contention was the Shatt al-Arab waterway, a vital shipping lane. A 1975 agreement had granted Iran shared sovereignty over the waterway, but Iraq, under Saddam, abrogated this treaty in 1980, claiming full control. This gave Iraq control of most of the waterway and required Iran to pay tolls whenever its ships used it, a point of significant friction.
Iraq launched a full-scale invasion of Iran in September 1980, hoping for a swift victory against a revolutionary Iran perceived as weakened by internal purges and international isolation. The justification for the operation, as cited by U.S. officials at the time, included Iraq's alleged support for international terrorism and its repeated threats against neighboring states, including Iran (where Iraq supported Baluchi and Arab separatists against the Shah) and Kuwait (Iraq launched an unprovoked attack on a Kuwaiti border post and claimed the Kuwaiti islands of Warbah and Bubiyan). However, the war quickly devolved into a brutal stalemate, characterized by trench warfare, chemical weapons use, and massive casualties on both sides. The conflict not only devastated their economies and infrastructure but also solidified a deep-seated mistrust and rivalry that persisted for decades. The question of whether Iran and Iraq get along was, during this period, unequivocally answered with a resounding "no."
The Dawn of a New Millennium: Shifting Sands
The turn of the millennium brought a seismic shift in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, fundamentally altering the dynamics between Tehran and Baghdad. The harrowing experiences of the 1980s war had left a legacy of animosity, but the dawn of the new millennium unveiled a dramatically different reality. The 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq and the subsequent overthrow of Saddam Hussein's Sunni-dominated Ba'athist regime created a vacuum that Iran was uniquely positioned to fill. With the removal of its primary regional antagonist, Iran saw an unprecedented opportunity to expand its influence.
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The establishment of a new, predominantly Shi'ite government in Baghdad, largely composed of figures who had spent years in exile in Iran or were sympathetic to Iranian revolutionary ideals, paved the way for a rapprochement that would have been unthinkable just a few years prior. This shift was not merely political; it was also cultural and religious, as the majority Shi'ite populations of both countries found common ground. While the scars of war remained, the strategic imperative for both nations began to evolve, moving from direct confrontation to a more nuanced, albeit still complex, interaction. This period marked the beginning of a re-evaluation of whether Iran and Iraq get along, moving from outright hostility to a state of cautious engagement.
Iran's Ascendant Influence in Post-Saddam Iraq
In the post-2003 era, the relationship between Iraq and Iran became increasingly complex and, notably, unequal. In fact, Iran exerts hegemonic control over Iraq to a significant degree. This hegemony was consolidated through a number of developments, particularly related to Iraq’s existential conflict with the Islamic State (ISIS) from 2014 until 2017. The fall of Mosul to the jihadi group in 2014, coupled with the collapse of much of the Iraqi army, created a critical security void. In this moment of crisis, Iran stepped in decisively, offering military and logistical support when Baghdad's traditional allies were hesitant or slower to react.
Iran’s support for Shia militias in Iraq, which coalesced into the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), enabled it to solidify its influence in the country. These groups, often trained, funded, and advised by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), played a crucial role in pushing back ISIS. This direct involvement allowed Tehran to create a strategic corridor starting from Iran, passing through Iraq and Syria, and reaching the Mediterranean coast. This corridor is vital for Iran's regional power projection and its ability to support allies like Hezbollah in Lebanon. As Hoshyar Zebari, who served as Iraq’s foreign minister for 10 years and finance minister until 2016, stated, "Instead, Iran, more than ever, is 'the predominant influence in Iraq today.'" This statement underscores the profound shift in power dynamics, where the question of whether Iran and Iraq get along is often framed through the lens of Iranian dominance.
The Strategic Corridor and Regional Ambitions
The strategic corridor established through Iraq and Syria is more than just a logistical route; it is a geopolitical artery for Iran. This land bridge facilitates the movement of weapons, personnel, and resources, strengthening Iran's "Axis of Resistance" network across the region. Iran’s second goal is driving U.S. forces out of Iraq and the region at large, viewing their presence as an impediment to its own strategic objectives. The existence of this corridor and the persistent calls for U.S. withdrawal reflect Iran's broader ambition to reshape the regional security architecture, positioning itself as the primary power broker.
This expansion of influence, while providing Iraq with critical assistance against ISIS, has also raised concerns about Iraqi sovereignty and its ability to chart an independent foreign policy course. The presence and power of Iranian-backed militias within Iraq often complicate Baghdad's efforts to maintain internal stability and balance its relationships with other regional and international actors. The extent to which Iraq can assert its autonomy while relying on Iranian support remains a central tension in the question of whether Iran and Iraq get along as truly equal partners.
Economic Interdependence: A Double-Edged Sword
Beyond military and political influence, the economic relationship between Iraq and Iran forms another critical layer in their complex dynamic. The speakers at various forums have frequently addressed the energy relationship between Iraq and Iran, highlighting a significant dependency. For years, Iraq has relied heavily on Iranian natural gas to keep the lights on, particularly for its power plants. This reliance stems from Iraq's own underdeveloped energy infrastructure and its inability to meet its rapidly rising domestic electricity demand. However, this dependency comes with significant challenges. Iran itself has rising national demand and an inefficient grid, and periodically cuts off gas supplies to Iraq to serve its own people, leading to power outages and public discontent in Iraq. Furthermore, Iran also suffers from U.S. sanctions, which complicate its ability to conduct international trade and receive payments, sometimes impacting its reliability as an energy supplier.
Despite these challenges, there are clear efforts to deepen bilateral cooperation. In a significant move that highlights the strengthening relationship between Iran and Iraq, the two nations have signed 14 new agreements aimed at deepening their bilateral cooperation across various sectors, including trade, energy, transportation, and finance. These agreements signal a mutual desire to foster economic ties, recognizing the benefits of proximity and shared interests. However, the underlying power imbalance and the impact of external pressures, particularly U.S. sanctions on Iran, mean that this economic interdependence is a double-edged sword for Iraq, simultaneously offering vital resources and posing significant vulnerabilities.
Navigating Sanctions and Energy Security
The impact of U.S. sanctions on Iran directly affects Iraq's energy security. While Iraq receives waivers from the U.S. to import Iranian gas, these waivers are often temporary and subject to political considerations, creating uncertainty for Baghdad. This forces Iraq to navigate a delicate balance between its energy needs and its relationship with the United States. On the other hand, Iraq must focus on a key question: If Iraq is looking for a method to secure the transport of energy and diversify its sources, what are its long-term strategies?
Iraq is actively exploring options to reduce its reliance on Iranian gas, including developing its own gas fields and connecting to other regional grids. However, these are long-term projects that require substantial investment and time. In the interim, the economic lifeline provided by Iran, particularly for electricity, means that Iraq cannot easily sever its ties, even as it seeks greater energy independence. This economic reality significantly influences the practical answer to whether Iran and Iraq get along, as it necessitates ongoing cooperation despite political complexities.
Border Dynamics and Security Challenges
The shared border between Iran and Iraq, stretching over 1,458 kilometers, is a crucial element in their relationship, presenting both opportunities for interaction and significant security challenges. Iran has notably expanded its control by establishing 151 military bases along the common border with Iraq. This extensive military presence underscores Iran's strategic interest in its western flank and its desire to secure its influence. As analyst Michael Krieg noted, "much of it has to do with the fact that the border between Iraq and Iran is very porous." This porosity means that controlling cross-border movements, whether of goods, people, or illicit activities, is exceedingly difficult. Krieg further elaborated on the Iraqi side, stating that "Iraqi forces don’t make any effort, and don’t have any capacity, to control the" border effectively, which allows for significant Iranian maneuverability and informal crossings.
This lack of effective border control by Iraq has several implications. It facilitates the movement of Iranian-backed militias and resources into Iraq, further cementing Tehran's influence. It also complicates Iraq's efforts to assert its sovereignty and prevent its territory from being used by groups that might pose a threat to its neighbors or its own stability. The porous border also allows for the illicit flow of goods and people, creating a complex security environment that both nations must contend with. The border, therefore, serves as a physical manifestation of the asymmetrical power dynamic and the ongoing security concerns that shape whether Iran and Iraq get along.
The Kurdish Question and Cross-Border Operations
A specific and persistent challenge along the border relates to Kurdish opposition groups. Meanwhile, a handful of Kurdish opposition groups that are barred from operating on Iranian soil are based in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region of Iraq. These groups, such as the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI) and the Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan, conduct activities against the Iranian government from Iraqi territory. Tehran views their presence as a direct security threat and has frequently launched cross-border missile and drone strikes against their bases in Iraqi Kurdistan, often without prior coordination with Baghdad or Erbil.
These Iranian military actions within Iraqi territory violate Iraq's sovereignty and strain relations between Baghdad, Erbil, and Tehran. While the Iraqi federal government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) have limited control over these groups, Iran holds them responsible for allowing such activities. This issue highlights the delicate balance Iraq must maintain between its internal autonomy, its relationship with its Kurdish region, and its powerful neighbor. The ongoing tension over these cross-border operations is a clear indicator that while there might be cooperation in some areas, deep-seated security concerns continue to challenge the notion of whether Iran and Iraq get along harmoniously.
Regional Rivalries and External Pressures
The relationship between Iran and Iraq cannot be viewed in isolation; it is deeply intertwined with broader regional rivalries and external pressures. In the past 15 years in particular, the differences between Saudi Arabia and Iran have been sharpened by a series of events, including proxy wars, ideological competition, and competition for regional influence. Iraq, due to its geographic position and sectarian demographics, often finds itself caught in the middle of this larger Sunni-Shi'ite geopolitical struggle. Both Riyadh and Tehran vie for influence in Baghdad, complicating Iraq's foreign policy and internal cohesion. The question of whether Iran and Iraq get along is therefore also influenced by how well Iraq can balance these competing regional interests.
Furthermore, the broader Middle East is characterized by overlapping civil wars in Syria and Iraq, creating a complex web of alliances and conflicts that directly impact the Tehran-Baghdad dynamic. The Syrian civil war, in particular, saw Iran and its proxies playing a significant role in supporting the Assad regime, which further solidified Iran's strategic corridor through Iraq. External actors, including the United States and Israel, also exert considerable influence. For instance, Israel recognized a golden opportunity to seize Iranian weakness, following the collapse of its proxy “axis of resistance” led by Hezbollah along with Israel’s operational achievements of its October 2024 attack on Iran, when Israel destroyed Tehran’s strategic air defense system. While this specific event refers to a future scenario, it highlights the constant state of regional tension and the potential for external actions to destabilize or reconfigure alliances, directly affecting the Iran-Iraq relationship.
The Shadow of Proxy Conflicts
The presence of overlapping civil wars in Syria and Iraq has transformed these countries into battlegrounds for regional and international proxy conflicts. In Iraq, various armed groups, some with strong ties to Iran and others with more nationalistic agendas, operate within a complex security landscape. This environment allows external powers to project influence through local actors, further entangling Iraq in regional power struggles. For instance, while Iran supports certain Shi'ite factions, other Iraqi groups may align with Saudi Arabia or other Gulf states, or seek to assert Iraqi national interests independently.
These proxy dynamics mean that even when official diplomatic relations appear stable, underlying tensions and conflicts of interest persist. The security situation in Iraq is directly impacted by the actions of non-state actors influenced by regional powers, making it challenging for Baghdad to fully control its own territory and destiny. The constant interplay of these external forces makes the question of whether Iran and Iraq get along not just about their bilateral interactions, but also about their respective roles within a volatile regional chessboard.
The Future of Iran-Iraq Relations: A Delicate Balance
The relationship between Iran and Iraq is undeniably multifaceted, characterized by a unique blend of historical animosity, strategic cooperation, and asymmetrical power dynamics. From the devastating war of the 1980s to Iran's current predominant influence in post-Saddam Iraq, their journey has been one of profound transformation. While Iraq benefits from Iranian energy supplies and military support, it also grapples with the challenges of maintaining sovereignty, navigating U.S. sanctions, and managing the presence of Iranian-backed militias on its soil. The porous border, the issue of Kurdish opposition groups, and the broader regional rivalries involving Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Israel further complicate the picture.
So, does Iran and Iraq get along? The answer is not a simple yes or no. They do, in many ways, cooperate out of necessity and shared interests, particularly in economic sectors and in countering Sunni extremist threats. However, this cooperation often occurs within a framework where Iran holds significant leverage, leading to an unequal relationship. Iraq strives for greater autonomy and diversification of its alliances, but its deep-seated reliance on Iran, coupled with internal fragilities, means that Tehran's influence will likely remain substantial for the foreseeable future. The future of their relationship will depend on Iraq's ability to assert its national interests while carefully managing its powerful neighbor, maintaining a delicate balance between cooperation and preserving its sovereignty.
What are your thoughts on the evolving relationship between these two critical Middle Eastern nations? Share your insights in the comments below. If you found this analysis helpful, consider sharing it with others interested in regional geopolitics, and explore our other articles on Middle Eastern affairs.
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